| Index Crime | Clearance rates for complaints made and cleared in a single quarter | Clearance rates for all complaints cleared in the quarter |
|---|---|---|
| Murder | 46% | 82% |
| Rape | 36% | 44% |
| Robbery | 43% | 56% |
| Felony Assault | 70% | 79% |
| Burglary | 33% | 43% |
| Grand Larceny | 13% | 20% |
| Grand Larceny of Motor Vehicle | 11% | 17% |
| Source: NYPD, 2024 Quarterly Complaint and Clearance Data. Note: “index crimes” include Murder, Rape, Robbery, Felony Assault, Burglary, Grand Larceny, and Grand Larceny of a Motor Vehicle. | ||
Introduction
According to the U.S. Department of Justice’s (DOJ) Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), which is the primary source of criminal justice statistics, most violent and property crimes in the United States are not reported to police, and most of the crimes that are reported go unsolved. BJS’ 2024 Criminal Victimization report revealed that approximately 48% of violent victimizations were reported to police in 2024. For rape or sexual assault crimes, only 24% were reported to police. In 2024, just 44% of violent crimes reported to law enforcement nationally were solved, meaning that more than half of people who reported a violent offense to authorities never received closure for their case.
Clearance rates measure the proportion of reported crimes that are resolved, “or cleared,” through arrest, charging and referral of a suspect for prosecution, or due to an exceptional circumstance (i.e. death of suspect, etc.), within a specific period. They are important because they can help demonstrate the impact of policing and the criminal justice system on solving crimes and improving public safety. Higher rates indicate a certainty that committing a crime will result in consequences, which can be a deterrent and improve public safety. They also increase public trust and ensure crime victims and communities trust law enforcement to provide closure and justice.
There are severe disparities in clearance rates across racial demographics historically, and between neighborhoods, which also undermine public trust in policing and public safety. A 2024 study found that the murders of Black men, who are more likely to be killed than their white counterparts, are less likely to be solved. Analysis of clearance rates helps identify disparities and should inform policy and resource allocation.
Executive Summary
The New York City Council Data Team’s evaluation of NYPD quarterly clearance rate data highlights significant limitations in the department’s current reporting system that obscure key measures, which could provide greater insights for public safety. While there have been recent improvements by the NYPD to its reporting of clearance rate data, major gaps remain that impede the advancement of data-driven safety policies, effective oversight and accountability, and transparency that promote the public trust necessary to improve public safety. Currently reported data sets omit incident-level information, demographic and offense details, more granular geographic markers (such as police precincts), and retroactive updates to past reports.
Although current NYPD clearance rate data is limited by methodological weaknesses that reduce its value for transparency and informing public safety, we present the figures in the interest of providing the data that is available. For the seven major felonies (index crimes), the quarterly averages of NYPD citywide clearance rates for 2024 are shown.
Clearance rates may also differ across boroughs depending on the crime category. For example, quarterly averages for murder range from 30% in Queens to 67% in Staten Island. For rapes, 28% of reported incidents in Manhattan were cleared, compared with 41% in the Bronx.
Table 1: Clearance Rates Quarterly Averages for 2024
Historically, clearance rates calculated all arrests made in a quarter divided by complaints filed in the same period, regardless of whether an arrest corresponds with a complaint from a previous quarter (Column 3 in Table 1). This has led to the clearance rate sometimes exceeding 100% due to the inclusion of arrests for cases from previous quarters. This clouds key metrics, like timeliness and average resolution times for cases. As of 2024, reports now also include separate metrics for cases cleared within the quarter (Column 2 in Table 1), revealing how older cases can inflate total clearance rates (Figure 2 below – Manhattan’s 2023 Q4 clearance rates for murder: 69.2% for cases within the quarter vs. 130.8% total).
Reviewing the Data
Local Law 42 of 2018 established the requirement for clearance rate reporting. In the bill, “clearance rate” is solely defined as “the number of specific crimes where at least one person has been arrested, not including voided arrests, divided by the total number of such crimes reported.” The data produced by this language, which is not nearly comprehensive enough, ultimately has only very limited use to data experts analyzing this subject.
Following this language, reports produced between 2017 and 2022 provided a single number for each index crime by borough, which was the number of arrests made in a given quarter divided by all complaints made in that same quarter. The chart below provides a visual example as to why this number is unhelpful:
In Manhattan, 2018 Q1, 2022 Q1, and 2022 Q4 all have clearance rates for murder above 100% (113.3%, 110.0%, and 109.5%). This indicates that in accordance with the definition stated in the local law, complaints made in a previous quarter but cleared in a later quarter will contribute to the clearance rate for the later quarter. This is problematic for a few reasons. First, the clearance rate for all complaints made and cleared within a single quarter, arguably a more meaningful number, is lost. There is no way to discern how many cleared complaints came from previous quarters, or how far in the past these complaints were first made. Key metrics like how long on average it takes for complaints to be cleared are impossible to determine. There is also the possibility that clearance rates inflated by cases from previous quarters will obscure the reality on the ground by creating a false sense of success. Evidence for this is provided below.
The following chart displays data for Manhattan’s clearance rates for murder from 2023-2024, during which reporting quality improved. In the quarterly reports from this time period, clearance rates for complaints made and cleared in a single quarter are provided alongside clearance rates for all complaints cleared in the quarter, including cases first opened in prior quarters.
Viewing these numbers side by side demonstrates just how much complaints from past quarters inflate clearance rates in a given quarter. The most stark example can be found in 2023 Q4, where the total clearance rate for the quarter was 69.2% when excluding past complaints yet 130.8% when including them. Even in quarters where the gap between these two numbers is smaller, such as 2024 Q1 (41.2% vs 58.8%), solely viewing the latter number may exaggerate how timely or effective the NYPD’s clearing process truly is.
This gap is further demonstrated when comparing the two metrics at the borough level:
The chart on the above displays the average quarterly clearance rate for murder from 2023-2024. Queens has the starkest difference in clearance rates excluding or including complaints cleared from past quarters (33.1% vs 84.2%). While the latter number certainly does represent the NYPD taking action on complaints, it is impossible to know how long it took for these arrests to be made. Therefore, the higher figure may be painting an overly optimistic view of the department’s efficacy.
Recommendations
While the NYPD providing more detailed metrics in its recent reports is certainly an improvement, there is still a need for more accurate and reliable clearance rate data practices. The Council will pursue legislation that would improve clearance data in the following ways:
Mandate that clearance rate data be reported on an incident-level basis, with a column for the date that the complaint was made and another for the date of arrest. This will allow data experts to assess the true length of time it takes for the average case to be cleared across complaint types and locations, as well as other key metrics that will enable the Council to conduct more thorough oversight.
Clearance data should include demographic and offense details, such as race, age, and law code, to enhance the ability to draw meaningful conclusions from the data. This will enable more effective oversight and informed policy decisions.
NYPD should provide the data at the most granular geographical level available. Whenever possible, additional columns should be included for geographic boundaries, like council districts or police precincts. This will facilitate the detection of any disparities in clearance rates across more specific regions of the city, as well as enable more precise and informed resource allocation by the Council.
Extend clearance rate data reporting to include all crimes, rather than only the seven index crimes, to ensure a more comprehensive and accurate understanding of clearance patterns.
Apply these improved reporting standards retroactively. To the greatest extent possible, reports from previous years should be updated with these requirements. Without such updates, data from the past several years will have limited utility for examining long-term trends.